By: John C. Lesher
My life-long interest in history has been piqued in recent days by the horrors of the battle for the small Ukrainian town of Bakhmut. Russian attackers and Ukrainian defenders are locked in a deadly cycle of attack and repulse, attack and repulse—seemingly an endless spiral of conflict for a town of no appreciative strategic value. This brings to mind Stalingrad: the battle that historians generally recognize as the turning point in the Russo-German theatre of WW 2.
The German offensive of 1942 had reached the Volga River and its industrial capital, Stalingrad, by late August. Both sides knew that if the Germans could cross the Volga, German tanks would be unopposed: neither by nature—no forests, mountains or major rivers—nor by Russian troops-- Russian forces were depleted east of the river, except for their Far Eastern Army which Stalin kept in position in fear of an attack by Japanese allied with Hitler. After crossing the Volga the German Army could go north to the Urals and disrupt Russian weapons manufacturing and, more importantly, south to the Caucasus oil fields and eliminate Russia’s ability to fuel its tanks and industry. Without fuel the war between Germany and Russia most probably would be over.
Hitler’s generals advised him to by-pass the city and cross the river upstream and downstream, but Hitler’s megalomania prevented him from agreeing with that strategic advice. Stalingrad’s very name meant to Hitler that the city had to be captured—a political trophy in a massively bloody egotistical contest between two dictators. Germans entered the city and for 12 weeks one of the most sanguinary battles in human history played out. The town itself had no value; it was destroyed brick by brick and urban fighting raged between blocks of the city, between buildings within those blocks, between floors in those buildings and between rooms on those floors. The Germans would not relent, the Russians refused to lose, and the 12 weeks of resistance gave Stalin the time needed to build up strength across the Volga, especially the movement of his Far Eastern forces into European Russia. The Russians counterattacked in late November and that successful counterattack represented the beginning of the German retreat from offensive operations in the Eastern European Theatre. The entire German Sixth Army was eliminated with the loss of between 200,000 and 300,000 troops.
I am seeing strong parallels to Stalingrad in the Ukrainian resistance in Bakhmut and in Russia’s mindless attacks, which seek a “victory” whose only apparent rational purpose would be to appease Mr. Putin. Both sides are suffering greatly, but Ukraine’s motivation and morale remain high—just as the Russians retained their fighting spirit at Stalingrad regardless of their casualties. By contrast, news media reports indicate that Russian servicemen are poorly trained and equipped and their willingness to die for Mr. Putin in a war without a clear national purpose is questionable. I was a member of America’s armed forces in the Viet Nam era, and that latter point of unclear national purpose brings back painful memories.
The supposed scenario unfolding is that Ukraine’s army is slowly building strength for a counterattack, while refusing to lose at Bakhmut. They are trading their blood for time, just as the Russians did 80 years ago at Stalingrad. When the counterattack comes, will the Russians stand and fight, or melt away in a disorganized retreat? If a humiliating retreat, will Putin survive the obvious embarrassment and/or be tempted to use a nuclear option? Will this be another Stalingrad, but with a reversal of roles and Russians being the surrendering force?
We obviously will have to wait for an answer. Neither side will consider peace until a clear military advantage to one or the other becomes tangible. Russia’s non-nuclear military power has faded dramatically and irreversibly; the entire world sees that decline. That “power” is an embarrassment to a proud nation. Ukrainians are deeply conscious of this weakness, and determined Ukrainians will resist for as long as Western nations give them the material and financial resources to fight. In the meantime, I can’t help believing that Russia’s military leaders see the unsettling specter of Stalingrad in their dreams and that they are reaching for their history books and talking to surviving veterans of that momentous battle.