By: John C. Lesher
My favorite state—New Jersey—has finally begun to loosen the governor’s Coronavirus restrictions and permit “normal” activity, such as meals in a restaurant setting. You thought toilet paper and paper towels were in short supply three months ago? Try getting a restaurant reservation today. Unfortunately, New Jersey’s version of dining out is to be taken literally: outside-only dining. “Al fresco” service is the cultured attempt to put a positive spin on the fact that wind and weather could ruin your linguine.
What bothers me is that so many times I have heard on TV and in newspapers that getting our economic and social lives back together—restaurant meals are a prime example---could be dangerous and cause more Covid19 infections. Counts of new infections (aka “spikes” in the news media) are continually proffered as evidence that the world is ending and we must get back into our self-quarantined mode for some further, indefinite, period.
I’m a great believer in facts and hard core data, but this observer sees no properly tabulated effort to separate fact from fiction regarding the pandemic. We have heard constantly that the number of cases is increasing every day. I accept that bland statement as true. However, by itself, in isolation, an increase in the case tally is meaningless. Our media should be ashamed of puerile reporting methods that give a partial, and possibly misleading, picture of the state of our recovery from the virus. This is dangerously close to fear-mongering and I must object.
For starters, every doctor in America worthy of self-promoting TV or radio air time has said we must test, test, test. I agree and, as best I can tell, tens of thousands of tests are being performed every day throughout the 50 states. This testing obviously uncovers infections, both current and prior. The fact that the case numbers have gone up is, to some unknown degree, a self-fulfilling prophesy because the testing is fulfilling its intended purpose of tracing this disease. More tests mean more cases, but that does not necessarily mean that the virus is spreading or contracting, or that it has become more or less lethal.
To get an accurate picture of this disease, and present facts to the American public so we can safely re-open our economy, we need to analyze the following:
1-What is the new infection rate among Americans? Simply counting the total number of cases is woefully short of relevance. Over the past, say, six weeks, has the daily new case number gone up, down or stayed the same? The absolute number of cases will go up in coming weeks (testing alone will insure that) but concerns are greatly mitigated if the rate of new cases is declining.
2-Hospital utilization should be examined. We heard over and over that our hospital facilities were about to be overrun by emergency cases of the virus. Thankfully, we now know that claim was true in only a few unfortunate situations, but we should take a hard look at our capacity to handle any new surge. Are the new cases producing a glut of new hospitalizations or are these new cases relatively mild and, in the main, not life-threatening? Is our hospital capacity being affected adversely?
3-The number of deaths is less important than the death rate. How many people die per some unit of comparison, such as deaths per 100,000 residents? Is it stable? Increasing? Decreasing? Do new deaths correlate with new infections? Ideally, new infections—regardless of rate—will be accompanied by a declining death rate.
4-Recent studies indicate that the virus targets our senior population with horrible efficiency. Conversely, younger people—especially those 21 or younger—have seen very little of this disease. Are new cases continuing this profile? Is the death rate among our seniors improving?
We need facts, not media hype and hysteria. The data are available. Our elected officials should do the right thing and go into full analysis mode. Hopefully, we’ll find that rising cases are accompanied by ample hospital capacity and a declining death rate among all age groups. If not, we can act accordingly and address problems as necessary. Until we get such a factual base of information I will take the poorly researched “oh my God” media reports with a grain of salt and will continue trying to make dinner reservations at any restaurant that will have me.